

The challenge is that, given current spreads, there are no cheap sectors in global fixed-income markets. That likely means eschewing interest rate risk in favor of credit risk. That generally is a negative environment for owning high-quality bonds, i.e., government bonds. At the same time, however, we're seeing a normalization of interest rates, certainly by the Fed, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, and we believe the European Central Bank will probably have to address rates sooner rather than later. economy growing at a 4% rate, Europe seeing its strongest growth in the last 10 years and Asia moving along nicely. Goggins: Overall it's a very good economic backdrop, with the U.S. There continue to be, in our view, opportunities in sectors that produced incremental returns in the past, and there seems to be a good prospect for what would be, by historic terms, modest but positive returns over the next year or two in fixed-income strategies. There does seem to be some rate stability in the marketplace. Now, rising rates do produce negative returns, and clients are certainly focused on the reality that many long-duration investment accounts have had zero or negative returns over the last 12 or 18 months. Our second stake in the ground is that we expect a couple of Fed tightenings during the balance of this year, with some uncertainty about the Fed next year. We are anticipating modest growth and modest inflation for the next 12 to 18 months. The first is that we expect, with continued support from fiscal and monetary policy, a continuation of the basic growth trend we've seen over the last several years. Marty Margolis: It's a mixed picture, but it's a little bit of a Goldilocks picture at the moment, and we could start out by putting a couple stakes in the ground that might carry us for the next year, and perhaps for the next two years.
